## Saturday, September 8, 2012

### Some things are more likely than others ...

We've been learning about probability.  That's when we work out that some things are more likely to happen than others.    Last week we learned some words to show how likely we think it is that something will happen.  The first three words were certain, impossible and possible.

If it's Monday today, then it is CERTAIN to be Tuesday tomorrow.  It's IMPOSSIBLE that it will be Friday tomorrow (Unfortunately!!)

If I throw a normal dice with 1 - 6 dot patterns on it, it is POSSIBLE that I might throw a 4. Then we talked about two more words, unlikely and probably.  After some investigation and discussion we put the words in order with the word that meant MOST likely to happen at the top down to LEAST likely at the bottom.

This is how we ordered the words.

CERTAIN

PROBABLE

POSSIBLE

UNLIKELY

IMPOSSIBLE

Have a go at working out which of these words go with the following statements.

1. Someone at Bradford will leave an item of clothing in the library on Tuesday.
2. Someone in Room 4 will have an apple for lunch on Tuesday.
3. Everyone in Room 4 will have an apple for lunch on Tuesday.
4. It will rain on Wednesday.
5. Mrs Mitchell-Bain will wear boots on Wednesday.
6. A cat will come to school on Friday.
7. A monkey will come to school on Friday.
8. It will snow on Thursday.
9. Someone in Room 5 will bring a scooter to school on Thursday.
This week we put some of our new words to good use by playing some cool games.

We played Bunny Hop where you toss a coin and move your counter according to whether the coin comes up heads of tails.

On Friday we learned two more games.  They are fun to play but they aren't very fair!  This one is called Doubles.  You play in pairs and take turns throwing dice.  If the two dice show the same number (Doubles) Player B takes 5 cubes from Player A.  If the dice show different numbers (Not Doubles) then Player A takes just 1 cube from Player B.   Which player do you think is MORE LIKELY to win?  The winner is the player with the most cubes after 20 throws of the dice.  So we got to practise some learning from last term (counting with tally marks) at the same time.  Aren't we clever!

 It looks rather like Josh is about to win.  But you just never know.  It's only PROBABLE.  Not CERTAIN.

Another fun game is Duck Racing.  No, we didn't have feathery creatures waddling around the classroom!  This game involves taking turns to pick numbers from 2 to 12.  Then you throw dice and move the 'duck' that is on that number.  The player that put their colour bean on the duck that makes it to the gate first is the winner.

Which numbers do you think came up MORE OFTEN?  Is that fair?
Have a look at the photos to see if your predictions are similar to some of the outcomes in Room 4.

Well Room 4, it's highly likely that I will see you again on Friday.  It's also possible that I might see you before then so keep your eyes open!!
Mrs B